History May Convey Some Hope for Biden’s Climate Agenda

Before launching into unbridled enthusiasm about the implications for environmental policies of the change from Trump to Biden, it can be helpful to place this change into some historical context.  Someone who is exceptionally well qualified to do this is my guest in the latest episode of my podcast, released today – Daniel Esty, who held a variety of senior roles in the George H.W. Bush (Bush 41) administration, and has been a close observer – and sometime consultant – on environmental policies of the four subsequent Presidential administrations.  You can hear our complete conversation in the Podcast here.

In these podcasts – “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program – I talk with well-informed people from academia, government, industry, and NGOs.  Dan Esty certainly belongs in this group, as he has occupied positions in two of these sectors, and has worked with all four!  Currently, he is the Hillhouse Professor at Yale University, with primary appointments at the Environment School and the Law School.  I’m pleased to say that he and I are both proud, long-time members of the Board of Directors of Resources for the Future, the Washington-based think tank.  Dan is the co-author with Todd Cort of a new book, Values at Work: Sustainable Investing and ESG Reporting.

Early in our conversation, Dan Esty reflects on his time in government, and recalls the high degree of bipartisanship that characterized voting in the U.S. Congress 30 years ago on the path-breaking Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, when 96% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted in support (in the Senate, 91% of Ds and 87% of Rs voted in the affirmative).  This stands in sharp contrast with voting in 2009 on the Waxman-Markey climate legislation, which had support from 83% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans!

In regard to the recent presidential transition, Dan comments that he was disturbed by the ease with which the Trump Administration rolled back environmental policies, but is heartened by the change of leadership in Washington and the course that the new administration is charting.

“I’m excited about having a commitment across the administration to good science, good data, and good analysis. And, frankly, the elevation of the White House Science Advisor to Cabinet-level status is a signal of that, and an important one, that…science is back, and we’re going to build on the best evidence we can establish, and drive policy from there,” he says.

Esty commends President Biden for many of his high-level appointments, including John Kerry as climate envoy, Gina McCarthy as domestic climate change czar, Jennifer Granholm as Secretary of Energy, Pete Buttigieg as Secretary of Transportation, and Michael Regan as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Kerry in particular, Esty notes, can play a critical role in helping rally international support for climate policy as the U.N. Conference of the Parties prepares to hold its next annual meeting, this November in Glasgow, Scotland.

“There’ll be a big push as we approach that November gathering in Scotland to really have countries demonstrate renewed commitment and increased ambition to speed up the pace at which de-carbonization takes place,” Esty says. “We’re not going to renegotiate the Paris agreement, but I think John Kerry is the one who could say, the U.S. is back in this agreement, serious of purpose in terms of its own strategy for emissions reduction, and he will be able to tell that story with conviction to the leaders across the world.”

Dan is cautiously hopeful that the new administration will deploy a bipartisan approach to domestic climate policy as it lays the foundation for the transition to a clean energy economy in the United States.

“There is a hope, but I know that it’s a tough moment, that we might get back to a time, perhaps not this year or next, but at some point soon, when more of the agenda does move on a bipartisan basis.  I think we’re going to need to see a new tool box, a new set of approaches to the strategy of moving to clean energy, and I’m excited about that because I think it offers the promise, not the certainty, but the possibility of bringing together a broader coalition across party lines.”

Dan’s hope is commendable, and given the current state of political polarization in the U.S. Congress, he recognizes that it will require some truly inspired and highly creative proposals from the new administration to bridge the divide that exists.

All of this and much more is found in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”  I hope you will listen to this latest discussion here.  You can find a complete transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.

My conversation with Professor Esty is the 20th episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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Is the Oil-and-Gas Industry Undergoing a Transformation?

            It is probably fair to say that there are some environmental advocates, at least in the United States, who consider the oil and gas industry to be the moral equivalent of tobacco companies, that is, simply out to maximize profits, without any consideration given to the broader, social implications of the use of their products.  Furthermore, some such critics may paint the oil and gas sector with a broad brush –ignoring ways in which the various companies may differ from one another. 

            My guest in the latest episode of my podcast, released today, Spencer Dale, and – more to the point – his employer, may provide a counter-example.  Spencer is Group Chief Economist of BP, the multinational oil & gas company based in London, where he leads BP’s global economics team.  As readers of this blog will know, in these podcasts – “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program – I talk with well-informed people from academia, government, industry, and NGOs.  Spencer Dale has had very significant experience in two of these realms – government and industry. 

In his current role at BP, Spencer Dale manages the company’s global economics team, and is responsible for advising the board and executive team on economic drivers and trends in global energy.  He previously served in a number of roles at the Bank of England, including as executive director for financial stability, a member of the Financial Policy Committee, and ultimately Chief Economist.  You can hear our complete conversation here.

The swift and sharp decline in oil demand experienced in recent months, driven by the global coronavirus pandemic and policy responses to it, has had profound impacts on the oil and gas industry, due to falling prices and reduced revenues.  But Spencer Dale notes that it may also create opportunities for companies and countries to support the transition to cleaner energy sources as they strive toward net-zero emissions in the coming decades.

“I think the pandemic has highlighted the fragility of the planet and the unsustainable way in which we are living on the planet today. Moreover, the scale of the government interventions we are seeing around the world give us an unprecedented opportunity to use those government interventions to boost the economy in such a way that the growth we see going forward is greener and more sustainable than it otherwise would have been,” he says.   

Spencer predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to take its toll on oil demand as people and businesses conclude that they and their employees can work just as productively at home as in an office, and can save considerable amounts of time and money via reduced business travel.

“I think the far greater impact on oil demand is not through these behavioral changes, however, it’s through the economic impacts,” he says. “Hopefully the pandemic will be brought under control within the next year or so, but the economic scars from the pandemic are likely to last far longer, and in particular, those economic scars are likely to fall disproportionally on emerging markets around the world.”   

Dale says he is proud of the leadership role BP is playing in the industry by pledging to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, and by shifting its business profile away from being an “international oil company” toward being an “integrated energy company.” 

“The nature of energy demand is likely to shift materially over the next 20 to 30 years, away from fossil fuels,” he observes. “And that’s to be replaced by very significant growth in renewable energy led by wind and solar power, and so we want to pivot away from those fossil fuels into a wider energy company.”

Dale also acknowledges the difficult challenge facing policymakers as they try to revive their economies and address the threats posed by climate change.

“If you ask governments today, with levels of unemployment…going back to levels not seen since many decades, if you ask them to trade off near-term jobs versus long-term climate issues, that’s a hard challenge,” he states. “But there doesn’t need to be a tradeoff between those two. You can design smart policies which are both good for long-run sustainability and also generate jobs in the near-term.”

All of this and more is found in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”  I hope you will listen to this latest discussion here.  You can find a complete transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.

My conversation with Spencer Dale is the 18th episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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Carbon Pricing, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and Green Economic Recovery

In our most recent (September 8th) webinar in our series, Conversations on Climate Change and Energy Policy, sponsored by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements (HPCA), I had the pleasure of chatting with Joseph Stiglitz, University Professor at Columbia University.  This webinar series features leading authorities on climate change policy, whether from academia, the private sector, NGOs, or government.  A video recording and transcript of the webinar are available here.

In this case, my guest has had his feet planted firmly in more than one of those realms.  In addition to being a long-time faculty member at Columbia, Joe Stiglitz is Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute.  Among the many positions he has held, he was a Member and then Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Clinton administration, and subsequently Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank.

He received the John Bates Clark Medal from the American Economic Association in 1979, and the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001.  In addition, he is Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Philosophical Society, and the Econometric Society.

I first met Joe in 1993 when he was a Member of President Clinton’s CEA, and then again on a long flight to Seoul, Korea, when we were both attending the initial meeting of the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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In our wide-ranging conversation, Joe Stiglitz shares his thoughts on carbon pricing, post-pandemic economic recovery, green economy transition, and much more.

Stiglitz explains that he favors a multi-faceted strategy to address climate change and to spur the transition to a green economy – including public investments, research and development, regulations, and carbon pricing. Such a “carbon package,” he says, can serve as a long-term economic stimulus because it will encourage companies to retrofit their operations, thereby spurring private investment and innovation. “And that’s the sense in which it will be a growth story. It will actually make for a more dynamic economy.” 

The economic impacts of COVID-19 may have temporarily diverted resources away from climate change efforts, Stiglitz remarks, but the post-pandemic period will bring tremendous opportunities to integrate green policies into economic recovery plans in the United States and elsewhere. “The pandemic has brought to light some of the real weaknesses in our economy. It has certainly made us more aware that we need to be better prepared for the risks that we face. One of those risks was the pandemic that we hadn’t thought about, and the other one is something we know about, which is climate risk,” he says.

Discussing public investments moving forward, Stiglitz remarks, “From my perspective, we as citizens have the right to make sure that that money serves a dual purpose – not only the purpose of bringing the economy back, [but] back in a way that is more consistent with the vision that we want of the post-pandemic economy and society. And that means a more equal society, I hope, a more knowledge-based society, and a much greener economy.”

He highlights two examples of national recovery plans that include green elements – in France, where the Air France rescue package includes provisions that the airline reduce its carbon footprint; and in New Zealand, where unemployed and underemployed citizens were hired to improve public parks, which serve as popular tourist destinations. And he cites the European Union’s “Green Deal” as an example of a multilateral effort to hasten the transition to a green economy, and he likens it to a wartime effort to address a visceral threat.

“What we are talking about here is heavy mobilization of resources,” he says. “Sometimes I use the metaphor of a Green New Deal wartime mobilization. The difference is that you see your enemy right in front of you in war. The effects of climate change we are seeing right in front of us – in the fires, the hurricanes, the floods, but some people are not seeing it as clearly as we would see a military attack.”

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When we are half of the way through the one-hour conversation, I pose some questions submitted by members of the virtual audience, on issues ranging from the challenges facing developing countries to the economic capacity necessary to move the needle on climate change. 

When asked what approach he would advocate to achieve widespread policy support for achieving net CO2 emissions reductions by the year 2040, Stiglitz remarks that, “I think that as a recognition that we all share the planet and carbon molecules don’t carry passports, that we’re in this together. There is a shared concern. Hopefully that will be enough to enable people to come to agreement on what a fair sharing of the burden is.”

Beyond this, Stiglitz explains that there is plenty that individuals can do to help in the fight against climate change.  “We all have multiple roles in our society. We are consumers. We are workers. We are citizens. As citizens, we have an important role in advocacy, in helping change the political process to help deal with carbon and the green transition. The only way these problems will be solved is when we have proper public policy.”

“As consumers, I think we also have roles, moving more towards greener housing, greener eating, greener transportation. We make lots of decisions, as individuals, we do savings, and we could put our money into portfolios that are greener. We can express our values through how we allocate our portfolios.”

“As workers, I think it’s important to articulate to the extent that we can, and in some firms there’s a greater openness than others, that we ought to be thinking of moving towards greener. I would argue it’s better for the companies…if they’re ready for the green transition,” he states. “I think there are lots of individual actions, and if we’re going to move our society, it will take lots of these adding up together to succeed.”

All of this and more can be heard and seen at this website.  I hope you will check it out.

Previous webinar in this series – Conversations on Climate Change and Energy Policy – have featured Meghan O’Sullivan’s thoughts on Geopolitics and Upheaval in Oil Markets, Jake Werksman’s assessment of the European Union’s Green New Deal, Rachel Kyte’s examination of “Using the Pandemic Recovery to Spur the Clean Transition.”

The next HPCA Conversation on Climate Change and Energy Policy is scheduled for October 19th with guest Joseph Aldy, Professor of the Practice of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School.  Please register in advance for this event on the HPCA website.

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