Using Economy-Wide Modeling of Climate Change Policies

In my podcast series, “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,”  I’ve had the pleasure of chatting with a number of former Harvard PhD students who have gone on to wonderful careers; and my most recent podcast was no exception, because I was joined by Karen Fisher-Vanden, Distinguished Professor of Environmental and Resource Economics and Public Policy at Pennsylvania State University, and President of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.  You can listen to our complete conversation here.

Fisher-Vanden earned a B.S. in Mathematics and a B.A. in Economics at the University of California, Davis, a M.S. in Management Science at UCLA Anderson School of Management, and a Ph.D. in Public Policy at Harvard. She spent time working at the South Coast Air Quality Management District in Los Angeles, California and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington D.C. before settling into her academic career, initially at Dartmouth College and now at Penn State.

When I ask Karen why she moved to Penn State (having previously received tenure at Dartmouth), she responds, “Penn State is known for its work on climate.  I was really excited about the opportunity to come here and build a large research program in integrated assessment modeling and economy-wide modeling for climate, not only climate policy, but climate impacts and adaptation, and I was able to do that here.”

Much of her research has involved economy-wide models designed to decipher the economic feedbacks that drive climate impacts and climate policy, including a 2018 paper she co-authored with Qin Fan and Allen Klaiber, published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental Research Economists.

“What I really like about this paper is it shows how econometrics and structural econometrics can be combined with economy-wide modeling to capture some important general equilibrium feedbacks that are crucial for getting the story [right]… There had been [several] papers that were using these residential sorting models, which is a structural econometric model, to analyze the effects of climate change on household location choice. And they basically were finding that climate change would create this large shift in population from southern states in the U.S. to the northern states,” she explains.  “However, if you take into account equilibrium effects, you know that if everybody moves, north wages fall, housing prices increase. And these models were not taking that into account.”

‘[We] found that even though you do get some movement north, it significantly is dampened. And that seems to make sense if you start to look at what’s happening in areas that you see these people moving to high climate risk states like Arizona, Texas, Florida, because the cost of living is a lot cheaper. We’re starting to already see that type of thing [happening].”

Karen has regularly served on National Academies panels, EPA review panels, the EPA Science Advisory Board, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  I ask her whether those stints have been a diversion – albeit perhaps a worthwhile diversion – from her research and teaching, or has such service actually contributed to her research and/or teaching?

She responds that serving as a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group III, in 2014, assessing literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic, and social aspects of mitigation of climate change since 2007, helped guide her current work as director of Penn State’s Program on Coupled Human and Earth Systems.

“Just to know how the IPCC works…has been very valuable not only in teaching… A lot of times being involved in these things allows you to identify new areas of research, and that’s helped me with some recent direction of my research program,” she remarks. She notes that her students glean a deeper understanding of how to develop public policies that will have a positive impact.

“Why you’re taking my course is you have to understand the economic incentives to change behavior, and you need some sort of training in economics to be able to do this. You need to be able to talk like an economist in terms of talking to policymakers,” she states. “You want to harness [their passion], but you want to give them the tools to be able to be more effective in trying to argue their case and make a difference.”

For this and much more, please listen to my podcast conversation with Karen Fisher-Vanden, the 63rd episode over the past five years of the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunesPocket CastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

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A Leading Expert Reflects on Climate Change and Agriculture

In my podcast series, “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” I’ve had the opportunity of engaging in interesting conversations over the past five years with many outstanding academic economists who have carried out work that is relevant for climate change policy.  But an important topic that has not gotten much attention in the podcast – with the exception of my recent conversation with Charles Taylor – is the impact of climate change on agriculture.

That topic is, in fact, the focus of path-breaking research by my most recent guest – Wolfram Schlenker, the Ray Goldberg Professor of the Global Food System at the Harvard Kennedy School.  You can listen to our complete conversation here.

In our conversation, Schlenker, who very recently joined the Harvard Kennedy School faculty after 19 years at Columbia, told me he that he has long been interested in empirically identifying the impact of weather and climate on agricultural yields and prices.

“When I was a grad student, there was actually a very active debate whether U.S. agriculture would benefit or be harmed from climate change. That’s how I got really interested in it, because it seemed like an unresolved issue,” he remarks. “I think one of the common things that I think I was among the first to identify, at least statistically, is this crucial role of extreme heat.”

Weather extremes, Schlenker explains, are extremely important.

“If you look at the EPA’s latest proposal for the revised social cost of carbon, and you look at all the sectoral impacts and mortality, energy consumption, labor productivity, agriculture, the common theme across all of them is that it’s pretty much all driven by how much of the temperature distribution we push into the really upper tail where the outcomes are just very negative,” he says. “I think that’s something that’s been coming back repeatedly in many contexts.”

Schlenker says that he’s excited to co-teach a new Harvard PhD-level course on environmental and climate economics with James Stock, professor in the Harvard Department of Economics, who has also been a guest in my podcast series.

“It’s based partly on the class I taught at Columbia. It’s also based on Jim Stock’s experience that he had from being on the Council of Economic Advisors in Washington, DC, where he worked a lot on biofuel standards and energy transition, and so forth,” Schlenker explains. “We’re trying to merge both the classics, the fundamentals of environmental economics, with recent policy-relevant topics.”

Wolfram also shares his thoughts on the relatively recent youth movements of climate activism, prominent both in Europe and the United States.  He says that while individual actions may not have significant impacts on specific policy initiatives, they have drawn international attention to the issue, which has been beneficial.

“They’ve been really good at setting the agenda and [putting] pressure on policymakers to take this seriously. [These actions can] lead to regulation that could help us potentially make sure we don’t use all those finite resources, and then, really have an effect on climate change,” he says.

For this and much more, please listen to my podcast conversation with Wolfram Schlenker, the 62nd episode over the past five years of the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunesPocket CastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

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Update from the Harvard Methane Initiative

In previous essays at my blog, I have described the university-wide initiative we launched at Harvard in 2023, “Reducing Global Methane Emissions,” a research and outreach cluster of the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability.  In today’s blog post, I’m providing an update on some of our activities over the first year of this three-year initiative.  If you’ve already received this update from a separate distribution list, I apologize for the duplication!

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Celebrating Year One of the Harvard Initiative on Reducing Global Methane Emissions 

Overview

The Harvard Initiative on Reducing Global Methane Emissions, supported by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University, is celebrating its first anniversary. The Initiative, which was launched in July 2023, seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with policymakers, as well as with key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions. Methane-emissions abatement can, in the near term, significantly reduce the magnitude of climate change and its impacts, giving the world time to “bend the curve” on CO2 emissions, conduct research on carbon removal, and, more generally, to implement longer-term strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The Harvard Methane Initiative is one of five ambitious, multidisciplinary, three-year, University-wide climate-research clusters supported by the Salata Institute (with additional clusters to be added soon). As the Initiative celebrates its first anniversary, this update looks back at its interim achievements.

A more detailed description of the Initiative can be found here. 

Research

Research lies at the core of the Harvard Methane Initiative, primarily in the form of projects conducted by multidisciplinary teams of Harvard faculty members and other Harvard researchers that is improving our understanding of strategies to mitigate methane emissions. With seven research projects launched in the Initiative’s first year, and 11 research projects added in the Initiative’s second year, we list below some research briefs published by the Initiative, as well as press mentions.

Research Briefs:

Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: Rising Emissions in Africa from Rice Agriculture (April 2024)

EPA’s Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Methane Emission Rules (February 2024)

Methane and Trade: Paving the Way for Enhanced Global Cooperation on Climate Change (July 2023)

Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China (May 2023)

Research News:

Methane Sensors are Finding Dangerous Pollutants in Low-income Neighborhoods (March 2024)Methane

Initiative Collaborator Releases Legal Analysis of IRA’s Methane Fee (February 2024)

How Regulators Use Satellite Images of Methane (October 2023)

Using History to Target Methane Super-Emitters (October 2023) 


Outreach: Events, Podcasts, and Resources

The Harvard Methane Initiative places great importance on communicating the results of its research to key stakeholders. Following are reports on such outreach activities, conducted by the Initiative and collaborating Harvard faculty members. 

HEEP Director Robert Stavins Moderates Harvard Climate Action Week Panel on “Strategies for Mitigating Global Methane Emissions” (June 2024); article and video recording. Efforts to measure and mitigate the impact of methane emissions were the topic of discussion at a panel convened as part of Harvard Climate Action Week, sponsored by Harvard’s Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability and moderated by Harvard Methane Initiative Director Robert Stavins. The panel consisted of these leading experts: Mark Brownstein, Environmental Defense Fund; Jody Freeman, Environmental and Energy Law Program, Harvard Law School; Adam Pacsi, Methane Policy Advisor, Chevron; and Stephen Wofsy, Harvard Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science. 

Reducing Methane Emissions in the Oil and Natural Gas Sector (February 2024). This animated video, narrated by Jody Freeman, Environmental and Energy Law Program, Harvard Law School, explains the U.S. methane-regulatory process. Regulation of methane emissions, especially in the oil and gas sector, is one of the Program’s principal research areas. See the Program’s methane home page here and several other items associated with the Program in this email update. 

Analyzing COP 28: A Conversation with Jonathan Banks” (December 2023). “Environmental Insights” podcast hosted by Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Methane Initiative. Jonathan Banks is Global Director, Methane Pollution Prevention with the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), where he develops and directs all of CATF’s international efforts to reduce methane pollution from energy, waste, and agriculture. 

Global and U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Progress. Jody Freeman, Director of the Environment and Energy Law Program, Harvard Law School, hosted a podcast in December 2023 as part of the Program’s “Clean Law” series, providing an insightful and wide-ranging overview of global and U.S. developments in reducing methane emissions. 

Harvard Side Event at COP28 on Reducing Global Methane Emissions (November 2023). This video recording of the Initiative’s panel event at the annual UN climate-change conference features James Stock, Professor of Economics and Director, Harvard Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability; Claire Henly, advisor, non-CO2 gases, US Presidential Envoy for Climate; Helena Varkkey, Project Lead, Initiative on Methane Emissions in Malaysia; Daniel Jacob, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, Harvard University; Robert Stavins, Director, Harvard Methane Initiative. 

Harvard Speaks on Climate Change: Satellite Detection of Methane Emissions (December 2023). This video recording features Harvard faculty members Daniel Jacob, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry; Stephen Wofsy, Professor of Atmospheric and Environmental Science; and James Stock, Professor of Economics and Director, Salata Institute. 

Emma Rothschild on Adam Smith, Methane Emissions, and Climate Change” (November 2023). “Environmental Insights” podcast hosted by Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Methane Initiative. See also blog post by Stavins summarizing the conversation. Emma Rothschild is the Jeremy and Jane Knowles Professor of History at Harvard University and the co-lead on a project supported by the Harvard Methane Initiative exploring the use of satellite data to inform short histories of global super-emitter sites. 

Launching a Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions” (July 2023). Blog post by Robert Stavins, faculty Director of the Harvard Methane Initiative. Blog titled “An Economic View of the Environment.” 

Harvard Hosts International Workshop on Remote Sensing of Methane (June 2023). At a workshop hosted by Harvard in September 2023, leaders of the global effort to track methane emissions with satellite technology discussed how to coordinate their technical approaches and other opportunities for collaboration. The workshop was organized by the United Nations Environment Programme’s International Methane Emissions Observatory, with the support of the Global Methane Hub

The Challenge of Aligning Interests in Pennsylvania Methane Cleanup (September 2023). A climate research workshop hosted by the Salata Institute explored solutions to the problem of abandoned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania and beyond. 

Methane and Climate Change Policy: A Conversation with Daniel Jacob” (September 2022). “Environmental Insights” podcast hosted by Robert Stavins, Director of the Harvard Methane Initiative. See also blog post by Stavins summarizing the conversation. Daniel Jacob is the Vasco McCoy Family Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and Environmental Engineering at Harvard University and one the world’s leading experts on satellite-based detection and attribution of methane emissions. He is an active participant in the Harvard Methane Initiative. 

Harvard Environmental Economics Program
Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government
Harvard Kennedy School79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
© 2023 The President and Fellows of Harvard College
https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/projects/methanesalata_methaneinitiative@harvard.edu 

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