Another Informed View of the Outcome of COP-27 in Sharm El Sheikh

According to my most recent podcast guest, Billy Pizer, the Vice President for Research and Policy Engagement at Resources for the Future, agreement by negotiators at the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, earlier this month on a mechanism to provide funding for particularly vulnerable nations suffering from climate change was a significant outcome, while the negotiators’ inability to achieve substantive commitments by nations to increase their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) was a disappointment.  Dr. Pizer offers those views and much more in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  I hope you will listen to the interview and our conversation here.

[As you know if you follow this blog, I have my own views of the outcome of COP27, about which I wrote just a couple of days ago, but in these podcasts I strive to feature the work and views of my guests, so in the podcast you won’t hear much from me on the various issues that arose at COP27.  If you want to get my own take on that, you can find it here and here.]  Now back to Billy Pizer …

The eyes of the world were focused on Sharm El Sheikh as negotiators representing nearly 200 countries discussed myriad issues with the goal of advancing international efforts to limit global warming to well below 2° C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5° C this century, as specified in the Paris Agreement.  COP27 did not have a particularly ambitious agenda, Pizer observes in our conversation, but it did move the ball forward.

“We’re now at a place after Paris where everything is a little bit lower stakes, in a sense, because we have the framework in place. And everything now is simply moving that framework along to the next step,” he says. “I think it’s inevitable that there’s a little bit less high-level drama and stakes going on at the COPs. That doesn’t mean they’re not unimportant, it just means that the nature of the COPs is different.”

Pizer says that one of the most significant outcomes during the two weeks of the COP took place 6,000 miles away, at the G20 summit in Bali, where President Biden and China President Xi agreed to resume bilateral cooperation on climate change as well as other issues. 

“Now the negotiations have stepped back up,” Pizer remarks. “And I think that is certainly a significant development because I think it’s just very hard to make progress [on international climate policy] without the US and China talking.”

Another major outcome from this year’s COP was the agreement to establish a “Loss and Damage” fund to help poor nations suffering from the impacts of climate change. Pizer admits that he was somewhat surprised that the U.S. supported that proposal. 

“The United States has been very concerned about whether or not there would be a notion of liability that went with such compensation. But remarkably, it was on the agenda, it got negotiated. And in the end, there was an agreement to a new fund,” he states. “The United States typically does not like to create new funds. But in the end, they were isolated, and I don’t think they wanted to be responsible for a bad outcome. And I think they also recognized the writing on the wall, that this was what the majority of countries wanted, and so they agreed to it.”

As an aside, I will note that as a result of work by the United States – and other delegations – at COP27, the Loss & Damage Fund is explicitly not about compensation or legal liability.

On another topic, Dr. Pizer observes that the negotiators made little progress on the issue of increased ambition among the parties to increase their commitments through their NDCs, an outcome which Pizer found disappointing.

“There is a broad recognition that we’re not on track to meet the targets, the goals of the convention or the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to two degrees or 1.5 Degrees. And despite that, there weren’t dramatic increases in ambition announced. So that’s almost like the lack of an outcome that was notable,” he says.

The author along with Billy Pizer and others at RFF’s recent Net-Zero Economy Summit in Washington, D.C.

On a very positive note, Billy Pizer cites the power of recent youth movements of climate activism to help advance international climate efforts.

“I think the youth movement and the popular movement to address climate change has that sort of catalyzing role to help move things along,” he notes. “And I think it also creates a dynamic where, with the younger generation … even more committed to taking action, it helps decision makers, businesses, people that are betting literally their money on different events taking place, that this sort of action in the future is going to even accelerate more because the younger generation is even more concerned about it.”

Again, I encourage you to listen to this 42nd episode of the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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Regulatory Skepticism and Technological Optimism from a Prominent Environmental Lawyer

Although I’ve featured economists in my podcast, I’ve also been privileged to host some top environmental lawyers and legal scholars, including:  Sue Biniaz (now at the U.S. State Department), Ricky Revesz (at NYU Law School), Dan Esty (from Yale Law School, now at the World Trade Organization in Geneva), Jody Freeman (of Harvard Law School), and Jonathan Wiener (of Duke University’s School of Law).

That’s a diverse group in terms of gender, but I will acknowledge that it is not a very diverse group politically.  In my latest podcast, I begin to make up for that with an environmental lawyer who has worked closely and held important positions in Republican administrations.  But I did not invite him to the podcast because of his political background and viewpoint, but simply because he is one of this country’s leading and most prominent environmental lawyers.  As I assume people of all political stripes will readily acknowledge, he’s both smart and articulate.

I’m talking about Jeffrey Holmstead, who served as Associate Counsel to the President in the George H.W. Bush administration, Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the George W. Bush administration, and now leads the Environmental Strategies Group at Bracewell in Washington, DC.  My conversation with Jeff Holmstead is featured in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program. Our complete conversation is here.

Despite his solid Republican credentials, Holmstead praises the Biden Administration’s early efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in two specific ways.

“They have made very clear that climate change is one of their highest priorities, and they’ve actually done a couple of very important things,” Holmstead says. “Their first priority was in the transportation sector, and they finalized much more aggressive CO₂ emission standards for vehicles. And then they have proposed, but not yet finalized, a pretty aggressive approach to regulate methane emissions from oil and gas operations.”

As readers of this blog know, the Biden Administration has also promised to revise the Social Cost of Carbon, but Holmstead argues that its fate may rest with the courts, depending on how it is used.

“I think the courts have correctly said that in and of itself, that alone is not the type of action that is reviewable in court, and it won’t be reviewable until it’s used in a regulation. I think it will depend on the specific contours of the regulation that they’re doing,” he says. “All these regulatory programs have different standards that the agencies have to meet. And if it’s the kind of standard that allows them to consider benefits and costs, I think it depends on the specific context. And I think there will be some interesting litigation about that.”

Holmstead also remarks that the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposal requiring public companies to provide certain climate-related disclosures in their registration statements and periodic reports is likely to run into significant legal challenges.  

“The idea that the Securities and Exchange Commission would essentially be regulating greenhouse gases and they would do it in the form of a disclosure, but at least as proposed, it would be a pretty intrusive form of disclosure. And so, I think that there’s a fairly good chance that if the SEC finalizes what it proposed, that it’s likely to run into trouble in the courts,” he says.

Yet Holmstead also said in our conversation that he believes there is a “good chance” of having comprehensive climate change legislation in the United States fairly soon.

“I think there are many people in the business community that would like to have the certainty of legislation. And so, I’m still optimistic that we could see something like that in the relatively near future,” he remarks. “But … ultimately it seems to me that it’s a technology question. And until there is a way to provide people with electricity and to power mobility, that is at least close to being cost competitive with coal and oil, I think it’s going to be an uphill battle.

At the end of our conversation, Jeff Holmstead concludes with a note of technological optimism: “I think that there are technological breakthroughs that are at least on the horizon that could help us solve the problem. But ultimately for me, climate change is a technology issue and not a regulatory issue.”

For all this and much more, I hope you will listen to my compete conversation with Jeffrey Holmstead, which is the 38th episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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Bumps Along the Energy-Transition Road

There will be many bumps along the road as America transitions to a clean power system. That’s the pragmatic assessment offered by Lori Bennear, the Juli Plant Grainger Associate Professor of Energy Economics and Policy and Executive Vice Dean at the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University, in the newest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program,” a podcast produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Our complete conversation is here.

As you probably know, in these podcasts, I converse with leading experts from academia, government, industry, and NGOs, who are working at the intersection of economics and environmental policy.  Professor Lori Bennear belongs in this group. 

Bennear, whose academic research focuses on evaluating environmental policies and improving methods and techniques for conducting these evaluations, has devoted recent years to studying issues relating to environmental justice and just tranistion, particularly surrounding the “winners” and “losers” who will emerge from the clean energy transition.

“We are in the process of [a] … once in many, many generations transition in our energy system, the likes of which we can’t … really imagine. But it’s going to involve significant land use changes, and changes to the way electricity is generated,” she says. “A lot of that is exciting from an environmental standpoint because they’re lower carbon. We have this opportunity to do this in a way that extends those benefits more evenly across the population than the fossil fuel-based energy system did, and potentially doesn’t centralize the costs of that energy system in particular communities in the same way that the fossil fuel energy system did. But we have to do that consciously from the beginning.”

Bennear admits that some areas of the country that are economically dependent on fossil fuels, including her home state of Wyoming, will suffer in the near term and accommodations must be made to reduce the negative impacts on those communities. She also remarks that there may be other downsides associated with some of the new energy sources which must be taken into account.

“While they’re good for carbon, they’re not perfectly great along every environmental dimension,” she states. “There’s waste associated with them. There’s mining associated with them. We need to take that in holistically from the beginning.”

Discussing the role of regulation in high-risk industries such as offshore oil exploration, Bennear emphasizes that government can only do so much.

“We need a series of both safety systems and safety processes that are tied to a safety culture, only some of which regulation can actually really dictate. That’s a hard pill to swallow, because on the one hand … we’re still dependent on these industries in many ways,” she remarks. “There have to be processes in place that reward people for valuing safety. That’s a harder thing. There’s a huge role for industry in that, which also gets some folks in the environmental community, gets their backs up because they feel like industry has too much say over what these regulatory processes should be. But they also have the expertise and the experience to actually make them happen.”

For this and much more, I hope you will listen to my compete conversation with Lori Bennear, which is the 36th episode in the Environmental Insights series, with future episodes scheduled to drop each month.  You can find a transcript of our conversation at the website of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.  Previous episodes have featured conversations with:

“Environmental Insights” is hosted on SoundCloud, and is also available on iTunes, Pocket Casts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

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